After a couple of really special weeks in a row, a regression to the mean came along. Unfortunately, the penultimate week of the year was a flop, with just one out of four angry picks hitting – and two ending in complete embarrassment for us.
Texas defeated Kansas outright 55-14, leaving no doubt about a -9 line. Oklahoma took a 28-0 lead against Oklahoma State after Bedlam’s first quarter and never looked back. Nebraska was a point away from upsetting against Wisconsin, while Duke fell two points against Pitt. Fortunately, Houston came through with a 42-3 shellacking against East Carolina.
Rivalries take center stage this week. The weekend’s biggest game in Columbus, Ohio features a surprisingly large line. Games against in-state opponents for Alabama and Clemson have even bigger totals. Let’s prepare for chaos. Here are five games that catch our eye for surprises on the moneyline in Week 13.
“Annoyed” is defined by ratings, not rankings. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Lines may shift after publication.
Baylor at No. 23 Texas
When: Friday 12 p.m. ET | Where: Darrell K Royal Stadium – Austin, Texas
Latest Odds:
Texas Longhorns -8.5
Texas has been overrated by analysis systems all season, thanks to a close result against Alabama and the dominance of a team from Oklahoma without their quarterback. The favorable metrics leave the Longhorns as a two-point favorite against Baylor, despite having won only one double-digit game since the Red River Showdown: Kansas.
Baylor gave rival TCU their toughest game of the year with a 29-28 loss and amassed more than 500 total yards and five yards per carry against a Frogs defense that held Longhorns rusher Bijan Robinson at 29 yards. The Longhorns are 1-3 against the top 6 in the Big 12 standings and tried their best to crush a 31-10 lead against Kansas State. Choice: Baylor +260
When: Saturday 12 p.m. ET | Where: Ohio Stadium – Columbus, Ohio
Featured Game | Ohio State Buckeyes versus Michigan Wolverines
Revenge is on the mind as The Game features a play-in for the College Football Playoffs. Ohio State has spent the last year preparing for the rematch after losing 42-27 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has positioned the defense well against lesser competition, but Ohio State hasn’t played a team that can push it to the physical limit.
Michigan is a flawed team that’s one-dimensional on offense. When running back Blake Corum was eliminated against Illinois, the Wolverines’ offense fell apart. Corum should be back for Michigan, however, and Ohio State hasn’t seen a team that can match them in the trenches since beating Notre Dame. Seize the opportunity. Choice: Michigan +240
When: Saturday 12 p.m. ET | Where: Bridgeforth Stadium – Harrisonburg, Virginia
Featured Game | James Madison Dukes vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
The massive line in this game is perhaps the greatest confirmation of Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall, who will miss the matchup with a foot injury. Backup Jarrett Guest threw two interceptions in a narrow 26-23 win over Southern Miss as the Chanticleers nearly gambled away a 17-0 lead in the first quarter. A canceled game against Virginia last week only adds a degree of confusion to this squad’s rating.
However, James Madison hasn’t given up over the past month, losing games to Georgia Southern, Marshall and Louisville and giving up 40 points to Georgia State. The Dukes have an impressive top line of talent, but Coastal Carolina has the depth, experience and maturity to run the business and keep the hopes of the New Year’s Six alive. Choice: Coastal Carolina +430
When: Saturday 12 p.m. ET | Where: Clemson Stadium – Clemson, South Carolina
Featured Game | Clemson Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Can lightning strike twice? Sure, why not. Clemson has dominated this matchup, winning seven straight games since 2014. However, the Tigers get Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks right while they find their rhythm.
Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler rediscovered his mojo with a school-record six touchdown passes in a 63-38 win over No. 10 Tennessee. South Carolina has scored on nine of their ten full possessions to win back-to-back seasons. There’s a way for South Carolina to have the best quarterback on the field when things are going well. Dial: South Carolina +430
Maroon at No. 7 Alabama
When: Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Bryant Denny Stadium – Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Featured Game | Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers
Do you think it’s a miracle? I don’t, but for more than 10-to-1s in what is at stake in one of college football’s greatest rivalries, I’ll do my best. Since firing Bryan Harsin, the Tigers have taken a decent Mississippi State roster into overtime, beating Texas A&M and Western Kentucky. The atmosphere around the program under interim coach Cadillac Williams is on another level.
Alabama is at a different level of talent and production, but the flood in 2022 was incredibly vulnerable. Nick Saban’s squad has won three games by one point, including a field goal against Texas and stopping Texas A&M at the goal line. Last week, The Tide picked up just 17 halftime points against FCS opponent Austin Peay. Alabama isn’t Alabama this year, and a souped-up Auburn team could benefit. Choice: Maroon +1050
|
Last week |
1-4 |
-1.15 |
|
season |
11-29 |
10.19 |
What college football picks can you hit with confidence in Week 13, and which top 25 teams will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the range – all from a proven computer model that has brought in nearly $3,000 in profits over the last 6+ seasons – and find out.