Nationwide summary: Home sales in Alabama fell in October as rising mortgage rates dampened buyer demand. Sales declined 23.4% year-on-year (Y/Y) and 8.9% year-to-date. Buyer demand has slipped below pre-COVID levels, with October sales down 12.6% from the five-year average. Further declines are likely in the coming months, with a 10-15% slowdown expected from last year’s pace.
Growth in home selling prices moderated in October, with the nationwide median home selling price rising 11.4% year-on-year, compared to an average of 14.6% from January to September. The nationwide average selling price rose 1.7% from September. Going forward, falling sales and rising inventories should result in home price growth slowing to 8-10% by year-end.
Inventories have risen slightly since September but have risen significantly (40.1%) since October 2021, when increased demand pushed inventories to a record low. However, inventory is still relatively tight, with the 14,370 properties for sale down 20.9% from the five-year average. Unsold inventory was at 3.1 months supply, below the equilibrium point of 4-5 months supply.
Sale: October home sales in the state fell 23.4% year over year, from 6,350 to 4,863 completed transactions, according to the Alabama Association of Realtors. Following the seasonal trend, but to a greater extent, sales fell 17.9% from September. Year-to-date sales are down 8.9%. Two other resources to review: Quarterly Report and annual report.
For all statewide housing data click here.
Inventory: Listings in October (14,878) were up 3.5% from September and 40.1% from a year ago. At the current selling pace, all active inventory in the market would be sold in 3.1 months, up from 2.4 in September and 1.7 in October 2021. The equilibrium point, where buyers and sellers have roughly equal bargaining power, is 4 -5 months offer.
Pricing: The nationwide median retail price in October was $247,105, up 1.7% from September and 11.4% year-on-year. The different sample size (number of home sales in comparable months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing, as this will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Homes sold in October were on the market an average of 44 days, selling a day faster than a year ago.
Forecast: October sales were 1,298 units, or 21.1%, below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) monthly forecast. ACRE forecast 6,160 sales for the month while actual sales were 4,863 units. ACRE forecast year-to-date total sales in the state of 64,562, while there were 61,365 actual sales through October, a 5% difference.
New build: The 680 new homes sold represent 14% of all home sales in the state in October. Total sales fell 24.9% from September and 19.3% from a year ago. The median selling price of $338,688 fell 4.6% from September and rose 15.1% year-on-year. New homes were sold in an average of 38 days, 13 days longer than in October 2021.
National summary: Existing home sales fell 5.9% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from September, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), marking the ninth straight month of slowing sales activity. All four regions reported year-over-year declines, and home sales slowed 28.4% from the October 2021 pace.
The median selling price for all home types increased 6.6% year-over-year to $379,100, the 128th consecutive year-over-year increase. However, home prices have declined somewhat over the past four months from a record high of $413,800 in June.
Properties were sold in an average of 21 days, two days slower than a year ago. Inventories are slowly trending up from the lows seen during the post-pandemic housing boom. The 1,220,000 entries at the end of October represent a 0.8% decrease compared to September and October 2021. The supply months in October were 3.3 months higher than 3.1 in September and 2.4 a year ago.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said: “More prospective homebuyers were pushed out of eligibility for a mortgage in October as mortgage rates rose higher. The impact is greater in expensive areas of the country and in markets that have seen significant home price increases in recent years.”
Yun said inventories remained tight, contributing to nearly a quarter of October’s listings selling above list price. He said: “Stocks are still tight which is why some homes for sale are still getting multiple offers. In October, 24% of homes got more than the asking price. Conversely, for homes that have been on the market for more than 120 days, their prices have fallen by an average of 15.8%.”
Cash sales accounted for 26% of all completed sales in October, up from 22% in September and 24% a year ago. Second home buyers and retail investors bought 16% of homes sold in October, up from 15% in September but down from 17% a year ago.
Foreclosures and short sales accounted for about 1% of transactions in October, up from 2% in September and the same as a year ago.
click here to view the entire monthly report.
The Alabama Residential Monthly Report is being developed in conjunction with the Alabama Association of Realtors.