dr Dante Scala on the midterm elections

ADAM: WELCOME BACK. THIS MORNING WE HEARD FROM THE PARTIES. IT’S TIME TO HEAR FROM THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT. WHO BETTER BRINGS A PERSPECTIVE THAN THE MAN WHO WROTE A BOOK ABOUT THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY, DR. DANTE SKALA OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHAT’S YOUR TAKEAWAY? DR. SKALA: THE STUDY OF CHOICES IS A LESSON IN HUMILITY. I REMEMBER THE DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION, WHEN I CONSIDERED HOW A CLOSE ELECTION COULD TURN OUT. WITHIN AN HOUR AFTER THE FIRST ELECTIONS WERE ON, I REALIZED THAT I COULD THROW MY PRE-REQUISITES IN THE WASTE. BETWEEN TIMES ARE ALWAYS SURPRISING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THAT WAS THE RARE SURPRISE. A SURPRISE IN FAVOR OF THE POWERFUL STATE PARTY INSTEAD OF THE POWERLESS PARTY. THAT FOR ME IN REVIEW, IF I HAD TO GO BACK AND THINK WHAT IF THE TURNOUT GOES THROUGH THE ROOF, WHAT WOULD IT BE? WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR DEMOCRATS? TURNOUT OVER 600,000 DEMOCRATS THROW THIS GREAT BLUE WALL IN PLACE LIKE CONCORD, DOVER, DURHAM AND THEY DARE THE REPUBLICANS TO MAKE THE CLIMATE AND THEY COULD NOT. Another thing is that New Hampshire Republicans have a problem with Interstate 93. ALONG THE INTERSTATE 93 CORRIDOR, PLACES LIKE BEDFORD, WHICH WAS SOLIDLY REPUBLICAN TWO DECADES, MAYBE EVEN A DECADE AGO. NOW THEY ARE SWING TOWNS. YOU VOTED FOR CHRIS SUNUNU THEN YOU VOTED FOR MAGGIE HASSAN. YOU VOTED FOR JOE BIDEN. REPUBLICANS NEED TO FIND OUT. HOW TO WIN THE VOTER IN THE FEDERAL ELECTION. NOT JUST FOR CHRIS SUNUNU BUT UP AND DOWN THE TICKET. ADAM: ABORTION AND THE DOBBS DECISION WERE A HUGE MOTIVATOR FOR VOTERS. WE SEE THESE INDIVIDUAL THINGS HAPPENING. BUT THIS PROBLEM, THE REVERSE OF A 15 YEARS SUPREME – 50 YEARS SUPREME COURT DECISION, THEY THINK THIS WILL BE SURROUNDED AND NOT JUST AN ALBATROSS, IT IS POLITICALLY RADIOACTIVE UNTIL IT IS RESOLVED. DR Scala: Yes. AND WHEN IT WILL BE RESOLVED IS HUGE. IN THIS CYCLE YOU ARE RIGHT. THE PROBLEM FOR REPUBLICANS IS THAT VOTERS DON’T LIKE DISTURBING THE STATUS QUO. RO – ROE V. WADE WAS THE STATUS QUO. ALSO FOR THOSE WHO ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF ABORTION. WHERE WILL THE COMPROMISE COME FROM IN THE FUTURE? THE HIGHER COURT HAS DECIDED AND THEY ARE SETTLED FOR A WHILE. CONGRESS, WE HAVE A SPLIT CONGRESS. WE NEED AN ABORTION ACT THAT SOLVES THE NATIONAL DEBATE – WILL WE GET AN ABORTION ACT THAT SOLVES THE NATIONAL DEBATE? I DOUBT IT. THIS IS WHAT’S UP IN THE STATES. THIS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT A CHALLENGE FOR REPUBLICANS. BUT IT IS ALSO A CHALLENGE FOR DEMOCRATS. MAGGIE HASSAN AND CHRIS PAPPAS LEAVE NO ROOM FOR COMPROMISE. THEY WERE VERY “NO, WE WANT TO WERE AGAIN AGAIN AGAIN.” THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS MIGHT SOLVE THIS, BUT THAT COULD TAKE DECADES OF LONG TIME. NO SHORT-TERM SOLUTION. Adam: The nationwide rejection of the election caused the nihilism, what were your thoughts on that? — DENIALISM, WHAT WERE YOUR THOUGHTS ABOUT THIS? ADAM: THREE TO HEART DEMOCRACY. IT WAS GOOD TO SEE PEOPLE, INCLUDING LIKE CAROLINE LEVITT, STANDING UP AND CONCEPTING AFTER THE RED ELECTION WAS OVER. THAT WAS A REALLY GOOD SIGN FOR DEMOCRACY BECAUSE STANDARDS MATTER. ALSO WHAT WE ALWAYS HAD FOR GOOD CLASS, THAT THE LOSER ALLOWS THE WINNER AND SAYS I LOST YOU WON, WE HAVE SEEN A LOT OF THAT. I THINK IT’S GOOD NEWS. IT PARTICULARLY SHOWS A SIGN FOR REPUBLICANS TO SAY HE, BY VOTING IS NOT A WINNER. MANY REPUBLICANS WILL GO TO THEIR GRAVES AND SAY THE 2020 ELECTION WAS SOMETHING WRONG. THIS DOES NOT MEAN YOU KNOW AHEAD THE NORM WILL BE THAT YOU DON’T HAVE THE ELECTIONS YOU LOST. ADAM: DONALD TRUMP IS BACK. 2024, THE HAT WAS THROWN IN THE RAIN. MANY OF THIS STARTES IN DISCUSSION FEEL FROM 2015 CONFIDENCE AND SAYING NO WAY THIS WILL HAPPEN, CERTAIN REPUBLICANS SAY IT’S TIME TO MOVE FORWARD. I WONDER IF WE ARE THIS AS DONALD TRUMP INC. MUST BE CONSIDERED UNDERRATED. EVERYONE DOES THIS – UNDERESTIMATED, EVERYONE DOES THIS AT THEIR OWN RISK. DR. SCALA: THIS FELT LIKE 8TH STAGE VERSUS 1ST STAGE. WE ARE 6, 7 YEARS PAST WHEN HE FIRST GOED INTO THE RACE. THIS HAS CHANGED. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, ONE THINKS ABOUT THE BASICS OF PRIMARY WIN, IT NEEDS MONEY, MESSAGE AND MOMENTUM. HE HAS TWO OUT OF THREE. HE WILL HAVE MONEY FROM SMALL DONORS WHO WILL NEVER STOP GIVING HIM MONEY. HE HAS A MESSAGE THAT RESONANCES IN A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE PUBLIC BASE. EITHER HE HAS MOMENTUM, I HAVE THAT MOST – THE ZEIFEL MOST. IT FEELS A LITTLE TIRED. YOU CAN’T BEAT SOMETHING WITH NOTHING. EVERYONE TRUPS RON DESANTIS SPEAKING THUS. WILL HE KEEP ALL THE PROMISES? WE HAVE SEEN MANY CANDIDATES COME AND GO WITH PROMISES WHEN IT COMES TO STANDING UP IN FRONT OF VOTERS. ADAM: YOU DON’T ALWAYS WANT TO BE THE GUY IN TWO YEARS. THIS CAN BE A DIFFICULT PLACE. IN 2015 AND 2016, DONALD TRUMP WAS SO FAMOUS HE NEVER HAD TO DO THE NEW HAMPSHIRE THING BECAUSE THE EXPERIENCES WERE HUGE FROM THE START. DO YOU THINK HE COULD BE SENSITIVE TO SOMEONE COMING IN AND TRYING TO DO THE JOHN MCCAIN THING AND GO STRONG AT THE WIDE? PARTICULARLY TAKING THE EXAMPLE OF DON BOLDUC, ONE WHO HAD ALMOST NO MONEY AND LIKE A LASER FOCUSED ON THE BROAD AND COULD WIN AN ELECTION WHERE HE DON’T HAVE THE RESOURCES? DR. SCALA: IT’S PLAUSIBLE. IT’S HARD TO SEE DONALD TRUMP PERFORMING A TOWNHOUSE IN FRONT OF 200 PEOPLE AND ANSWERING QUESTIONS FOR AN HOUR. SOMEONE MIGHT STILL STEAL HIM’S THUNDER – STEAL HIM’S THUNDER. DO WE DO RON DESANTIS? ONCE HE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE HE WILL HAVE A HUGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE. PERHAPS THERE IS SOMEONE LUCKING IN THE WEEDS WHO BUILD THE OLD FASHIONED WAY AND HAVE THE PEAK AT THE RIGHT MOMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE. MANY REPUBLICANS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE SEARCH MUCH IN THE SOUL. THINGS WERE NOT BIG FOR THEM DURING THE TRUMP ERA. THEY’VE BEEN ZERO-10 IN THE CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION SINCE 2016. MANY OF YOU, I THINK TRUMP VOTERS ALSO, WILL SAY IS THERE SOMETHING NEW OUT THERE? NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS ARE INTERESTED IN WHAT’S NEW IN AMERICAN POLITICS. NOT WHAT’S OLD IN AMERICAN POLITICS. ADAM: I’M INTERESTED IN WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT THE FORECAST FOR THE DEMOCRATIC DECISION ON FIRST IN THE NATIONAL PRIMARY. NEW HAMPSHIRE BYLAW HAS THE FIRST PRIMARY ON THE CALENDAR NO MATTER WHEN THAT IS. THE DNC HAS A DECISION TO MAKE ABOUT THE APPEARANCE OF THE EARLY STATE COUNTER. NEVADA WAS THE BIG CHALLENGER. YOU NEED 90 MINUTES TO DISCOVER WHO WON A SENATE RACE. DR. SCALA: I HAVE A COLLEAGUE WHO FOLLOWS THIS CLOSELY, JOSH PUTNAM. He said that if it were easy to change the process, we would do it a lot more often than we do. THE DNC FACES THIS PROBLEM. IT’S LIKE A GAME OF JINGO, YOU PULL OUT A PIECE AND THE WHOLE TOWER STARTS TWOCKING. NEVADA IS DIFFICULT IN VOTING. YOU HAVE EARLY VOTE. HOW IS THIS AFFECTED? IS THERE A POSSIBLE TRADE OFF TO LET NEVADA START VOTING BUT WE ENTER OUR RESULTS FIRST AND THEN LET NEVADA LATER BE THE FINAL RESULT? IT’S COMPLICATED. NEVADA NOW HAS A REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR. WILL THIS MAKE A DIFFERENCE? LOTS TO FIX THE DNC AND NOT LOTS OF TIME TO DO IT. ADAM

Close Up: Dr. Dante Scala on the midterm elections

Updated: 11:02 am EST November 20, 2022

Who better to offer perspective on the next First in the Nation cycle than the man who wrote the book about the New Hampshire elementary school?

Who better to offer perspective on the next First in the Nation cycle than the man who wrote the book about the New Hampshire elementary school?