PALM BEACH – On the second anniversary of the riots in the US Capitol, a much smaller than usual crowd took part in a demonstration of support near former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club.
Instead of the hundreds of loyalists who regularly gather near the Palm Beach compound, whether to protest the FBI’s seizure of documents or to celebrate the former president’s birthday, only a few dozen were during one mild sunset there.
The sparse depiction has once again fueled chatter among pundits about Trump’s alleged diminished political status. It’s speculation mounting in the last quarter of 2022 after a disappointing midterm election for his Republican party, a dinner with a white supremacist and a fugitive rapper, a guilty verdict against the former first family’s company and a damning report by a congressional committee blamed for the violence on Capitol Hill put Trump at his feet and criminally referred him to the Justice Department for leading an attempted coup, members of the panel said.
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As Alex Gonzalez, a member of the Born to Ride for 45 motorcycle group, observed the smaller number of Trump supporters surrounding him last week, he admitted the enthusiasm may have waned a bit.
“Some people have amnesia for good things and just want to move on,” Gonzalez said.
But he did offer this succinct warning to those who jump at the chance to sack Trump: “I think he has a lot of support.”
A Florida pollster who has polled voters on Trump, Republicans and public policy issues for years agrees. If his surveying team goes into the field in the next few months or so, Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, said he wouldn’t be surprised to see significant support behind Trump, despite the past year’s stumbling and erosion in some polls.
“If you disparage him, you do so at your own risk,” he said. “I still think he’s influential in the Republican Party. I think he’s influential among his core supporters, very much so. And they’re not an inconsequential group, especially in a primary.”
Polls: Trump still enjoys GOP support, albeit less than in the past
Still, it’s clear that the vise Trump seemed to have on the GOP electorate has eased over the past year.
A national poll by Quinnipiac University released last month found that 59% of respondents said they viewed Trump “unfavorably” — its lowest level since July 2015. Not. The latter number was the highest unfavorable value for him in almost seven years, the survey group said.
Another survey at the end of the year The economist and YouGov showed Trump slipping among Republicans and independent voters who “lean” the party, as only 46% wanted him to run in 2024 while 37% didn’t.
Those results and other signs in the political sky appear to have encouraged some GOP leaders to distance themselves, if not break outright, from the former president’s orbit.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who is in his 17th year as the chamber’s GOP chief, seemingly mocked Trump Jan. 4 by joining President Joe Biden on an infrastructure victory lap that was cut short with a handshake. Welcoming Biden to his home state of Kentucky, McConnell struck a bipartisan tone that contradicted Trump’s uncompromising combativity when he said, “No matter who gets elected, once this is all over, let’s look for things we can agree on and try to do this.”
A year ago, a number of potential White House GOP contenders said they would put their presidential aspirations on hold if Trump launched his candidacy, which he did on Nov. 15. But now New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said he had “talks” about a 2024 presidential campaign.
Advisor and Aide to Former Brother in Key Battleground State, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, say Kemp has a newfound leverage to distance himself from Trump after easily winning re-election two months ago despite aiming for defeat in a primary.
The Joker is a fellow Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump’s public abuse of DeSantis backfired last fall, and the two men never mention each other’s names.
DeSantis has not commented on a widely speculated presidential bid in 2024, nor on the polls showing a growing number of Republicans favoring him. But it will irk Trump beyond measure to see the governor in the eye of conservative media, likely during the Florida Legislature session this spring.
Certainly, Trump remains the only candidate in the 2024 field. But he remains confronted with major legal questions and issues in 2023 as well.
On Jan. 9, a Georgia grand jury hearing testimony about whether Trump tried to force Peach state election officials to “find” him enough votes to falsely win the state’s electoral votes submitted their findings to a district attorney Atlanta before. A federal special counsel designated by the Justice Department is reportedly deepening its investigation into allegations that Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 election and his possession of sensitive classified information after he left office.
Policy proposals, volleys at McConnell, House fight is mixed, but most fervent supporters back it
However, Trump appears determined to bring his standing as the party’s vanguard leader into 2023, albeit with mixed results. He shared a Jan. 8 CBS News poll on his Truth Social platform that said 65% of Republicans still value party allegiance to him.
Earlier this month, he also issued a policy proposal to fight drug cartels that included “the use of all necessary military means to impose a full naval embargo.” Like many of the former president’s campaign and rally speeches, it was heavy with muscular rhetoric but lacked detail and received little media attention except in right-wing outlets like Newsmax.
There’s a big moment coming up next month. Trump ally Mike Lindell, the pillow maker sued in a $1.3 billion lawsuit filed by Dominion Voting Systems, a voting machine maker, over false allegations of voter fraud, is leading an indictment designed to hurt Republican leaders’ re-election efforts National Committee, Ronna McDaniel to defeat.
According to an interview with Breitbart News, Trump does not choose a side in the RNC elections. But Trump recently called for GOP main opponents against McConnell and his cohorts in the US Senate. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said, “We have to stop Mitch McConnell now,” saying it looks like “he just doesn’t care anymore, he’s going to get whatever the Democrats want.”
Trump actively sought to unite the House Republican caucus party behind California Congressman Kevin McCarthy while the bloody, sometimes humiliating stalemate on the speakership vote failed to materialize.
As some reported, an 11th-hour call from Trump to get US Representative from Florida Matt Gaetz broke the stalemate. After winning the speaker’s gavel on the 15th ballot, McCarthy thanked Trump, saying, “I don’t think anyone should doubt his influence.”
Still, Trump’s appeals to the recalcitrant members of the GOP House of Representatives and his optimistic projections remained consistently and awkwardly flat for four days. Gaetz, a fervent Trump ally, parodied the former president in a tweet, while QAnon-supporting Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert, another staunch Trump supporter, lectured him from the house, telling him to ask McCarthy to change his nomination to withdraw.
The spectacle of seeing Trump “proclaimed,” said US Rep. Ryan Zinke, a Montana Republican who served as Trump’s Interior Department secretary, was “absolutely inappropriate.” McCarthy’s election was eventually secured by a set of rules, and committee membership moves more than support for the former president.
Some of those who gathered near a parking lot along Southern Boulevard west of Mar-a-Lago on Jan. 6 said they weren’t too excited to see McCarthy was caned for those four days.
“He goes wherever the wind blows,” said West Palm Beach’s Kathy Clark. “After January 6, he immediately turned against Trump.”
Others said those who argue Trump lost Mojo underestimate him — again.
“Trump is always relevant because they make him relevant,” Debbie Macchia said of the former president’s critics. “He wasn’t president, he didn’t do anything, so he shouldn’t have been in the spotlight at all, but he’s always in the spotlight because they hate him.”
Nearby, North Palm Beach’s Maria Korynsel agreed, saying Trump’s influence remains strong and unwavering.
“I don’t think Trump will ever lose his supporters,” she said, vowing, “We are here, we will always be here, he was the one who brought to light how bad the swamp and the establishment were … Because of.” him, he literally changed the minds of millions of people.”Palm Beach Post reporter Stephany Matat contributed to this story.
Antonio Fins is the Politics and Business Editor at the Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at [email protected] Support our journalism. Subscribe today.