The final result
Tuesday will be better. The “winter dead” taste of the cold will wear off, the winds will calm down and the temperatures will warm up. That makes for pleasant November weather for the big holiday outing. The prediction ahead of Thanksgiving looks good.
Even long-distance travelers (or those traveling with family) will find good weather in most parts of the US. There are two exceptions where airline delays and cancellations can cause problems: Some rain and snow Tuesday in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho) and the chance of heavy rain Wednesday through Thursday in the Deep South (Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi).
The weather in New Jersey after Thanksgiving gets a bit iffy and occasionally wet. For Friday we expect showers, followed by still rainy weather on Sunday.
Again, the operative word for Tuesday’s forecast is “better.”
Temperatures this Tuesday morning are in the 20s and 30s. Still cool. You still need a coat or jacket. But not as cold as Monday morning, with record-breaking teens and 20s.
The biggest improvement of all will be lighter winds. Winds from the southwest up to about 12mph. Definitely looking forward to a less stormy day.
So it will be sunny, dry and cool. High temperatures should reach the upper 40s to around 50s by Tuesday afternoon. That’s about 5 degrees below normal for late November. Feeling more like December than January.
Tuesday night will be calm and still, cool and dry. Look for lows in the 30s — only part of the state will freeze overnight.
Finally, after a crazy month of weather, we squeeze out a perfectly fitting, pleasant November day.
30s in the morning. 50 to 55 in the afternoon. In sunshine, light wind and dry weather. The conditions for the big holiday weekend could not be better.
No complaints, although a weak front will set temperatures back a few degrees.
The winds will be nice and light on Thursday morning, allowing the parade balloons to fly with ease.
Clouds will increase during Thanksgiving but our weather will remain completely dry throughout the day. High temperatures reach the low 50s.
Black Friday. Lots of shopping, leftovers, family plans and travel. And here our weather will go downhill again.
A storm system sliding through New Jersey will bring showers on Friday. “Showers” refers to isolated, light precipitation. “Scattered” means not everyone will necessarily get wet and it won’t rain all day. “Light” means precipitation totals are not impressive and flooding/visibility concerns are negligible. “Rain” means that the chance of winter weather is very low.
There are some differences between weather models regarding 1) when rain is most likely, 2) where it is wettest in NJ, and 3) how long it will last. But I’m comfortable making a forecast with clouds and showers. And that’s it.
Under the raindrops and cloud cover, the high temperatures on Friday should be rather mild. My latest forecast calls for highs of between 55 and 60 degrees for most of the state.
The extended prognosis
Saturday should be good with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the 50’s.
Our next next Storm system will be a bit more effective. Not just because of Sunday – one of the biggest travel days of the year. But also because more even, heavier rainfall is also on the table.
Again, there are some discrepancies in terms of timeline and precipitation totals. We will find out these details in the coming days. For now I would only expect a period of wet, inclement weather from late Saturday night through most of Sunday.
You know what doesn’t show up in any forecast? Snow and ice. This storm system carries warmer air and keeps temperatures above freezing for long periods of time. Any chance of wintry weather from this storm system remains far to our north. (Perhaps around Maine and eastern Canada.)
Dan Zarrow is the Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest real-time forecasts and weather updates.
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